Before you read, this is an edited version of a blog I made on Hardwood Amino. If you need any confirmation, here’s a link: http://aminoapps.com/p/l69atv
No player in NBA history has been as polarizing as Russell Westbrook. Is that fair to say? Well, some players who are known to be divisive include Allen Iverson, James Harden, LeBron James, and Kobe Bryant. Now, don't get me wrong, the four names I suggested are all extremely polarizing, but I've consistently found more appreciation than criticism for players like Kobe Bryant or James Harden. Unfortunately, Russell Westbrook doesn't get the same treatment. For years, Westbrook has been slaughtered for his lackluster basketball IQ, mediocre efficiency, and an unorthodox style of play.
Now, in all fairness, I've been a member of this 'hate-train' against Russell Westbrook. For years, I've mocked Westbrook for his playoff performances, his volatile shooting, and his dubious decision making on the court. Despite all that, I might as well highlight the positives of Westbrook's illustrious career, with the crown jewel being the 2016-17 NBA season. In the 2016-17 season, Russell Westbrook achieved an impressive and historic feat of being the 2nd NBA player in history to average a triple-double. Though the way he obtained this triple-double is extremely questionable, no competent person would say averaging a triple-double is 'unimpressive.'
It's been 3 years since Westbrook's MVP year. Though the season gets its fair share of criticism, it also receives a fair share of appreciation, as fans and pundits acknowledge the degree of difficulty it took for Russell Westbrook to average double-digit points, rebounds, and assists for an entire season. In that same season, Westbrook also led a depleted and weakened Oklahoma City roster to a playoff berth, which makes his "spite tour" that much more impressive. But, is that all Westbrook has to offer, in his 12-year career as a professional basketball player? No, because the season prior, Westbrook was one of the best sidekicks ever.
In 2015, we witnessed the Warriors – led by Stephen Curry – win their first NBA Championship in 4 decades. What's next? Well, Golden State won 73 games in the regular season, and we're viewed as this indomitable team. As the Warriors cruise past the Rockets and Blazers, they hit a brick wall in the Thunder. Yes, the Thunder still blew a 3-1 lead against the Warriors, but it removed the label that the Warriors were some unstoppable juggernaut. Hell, the Thunder beat the '16 Spurs in 6 games, who went 40-1 at home. This '16 Thunder roster had Durant as their #1 option, but under the shadow of the Slim Reaper, Westbrook was silently killing it.
'16 Russell Westbrook:
(per 75 possessions)
‣ 25.4 points per game
‣ 8.5 rebounds per game
‣ 11.3 assists per game
‣ 55.4% true shooting (1.3% rTS)
Based on box-score stats alone, Russell Westbrook had the output of an MVP caliber player, and rightfully so. In the 2015-16 season, Westbrook was phenomenal in transition, finding techniques to exploit the defense slacking, while having the absurd passing ability that has always been undermined, throughout his prime years in Oklahoma City (more on his passing later). This sort of style is something that threw off a lot of players, especially those of the San Antonio Spurs, where their all-time great defense, didn't seem to fare well against Westbrook's athleticism and sheer chaos.
Being erratic and unpredictable is always something that made Russell Westbrook special, but it's also something that made us NBA fans hate what he represents. I remember yelling at my computer screen countless times, because of Westbrook's 'in the moment' decision making, and if you were a Thunder or Rockets fan, during this period, you probably did the same thing too. However, Westbrook's unethical tendencies caused many of us fans to ignore his passing, which is the most underrated skillset Russell Westbrook possesses, as an NBA player.
Russell Westbrook is an exceptional passer, in a sense where he's able to execute lobs, throw lighting quick skip-passes to players in the perimeter, throw risky passes into high scoring areas, and he can connect cuts to the rim with near unrivaled precision. As a result, Westbrook gambles a lot, when it comes to making plays for his teammates. Inevitably, Westbrook's turnover numbers skyrocket, which is something Westbrook gets scrutinized for. Nevertheless, it generates elite-level plays for himself and his teammates. This elite-level shot-creation translates well in Westbrook's Box Creation numbers, which is calculated to be a +15.2 (pretty good, huh).
Now, what about his impact metrics? Alright, this is how Russell Westbrook stacks up, against the best point guards in the league, during the 2015-16 season.
2015-16 Regular Season:
‣ Westbrook: +6.62 PIPM, .245 WS/48, +7.8 BPM
‣ Kyle Lowry: +4.65 PIPM, .196 WS/48, +5.8 BPM
‣ Curry: +9.74 PIPM, .318 WS/48, +11.9 BPM
‣ Chris Paul: +7.39 PIPM, .253 WS/48, +7.9 BPM
‣ John Wall: +2.59 PIPM, .098 WS/48, +3.5 BPM
‣ Kyrie Irving: +0.98 PIPM, .143 WS/48, +2.3 BPM
With these advanced metrics at hand, we can prove that Russell Westbrook unquestionably deserves to be in the conversation for 'top 3 point guard' in the NBA. In fact, you could argue that Westbrook deserves to be the 2nd best point guard in the 2015-16 season. However, I believe that is somewhat of a stretch, due to the production Chris Paul and Stephen Curry amassed during the 2015-16 season. All these metrics back up the fact that Westbrook is an elite offensive player, with Westbrook having a +6.2 in offensive PIPM, +10 offensive Win Shares, and a +6.4 offensive BPM (Box Plus-Minus).
When it comes to the defensive end, Westbrook has been a net-positive defender. Russell is great at intercepting passing lanes, which leads to his transition game being more useful and more threatening to the opposing team. Advanced metrics also seem to think of Westbrook in a more positive light, as '16 Westbrook has a +0.8 in defensive PIPM, while accumulating 4 defensive Win Shares, and had a +1.4 defensive BPM. Despite that, it's noteworthy to point out the fact that defensive Box Plus-Minus isn't the most reliable metric at measuring defensive impact. Now, that's great and all, but did he perform well in the playoffs?
Over the years, Westbrook has gained a stigma of being a poor playoff performer, which makes sense. Ever since the departure of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook's career in the playoffs is quite depressing, to say the least. In 2017, Westbrook had atrocious efficiency against the Rockets, as the Thunder lost in 5 games. In 2018, Westbrook lost to a rookie in Donovan Mitchell, which sparked the departure of Carmelo Anthony. Then, to cap it all off, Damian Lillard waved goodbye to Oklahoma City, ending OKC with a half-court buzzer-beater. But, despite all that, the 2015-16 season proved to be an outlier of sorts.
'16 Russell Westbrook:
(per 75 possessions)
‣ 26.3 points per game
‣ 7.0 rebounds per game
‣ 11.1 assists per game
‣ 51.5% true shooting
Based on the information we have, Westbrook's box-score aggregates have stayed consistent, though we see a nosedive when it comes to efficiency, as Westbrook shot roughly 1% below league average for the playoffs. Due to this decrease in efficiency, many of Westbrook's advanced metrics shriveled. At first, it feels like the same old, same old. But, when you look at any player in NBA history, it's typical for a player's advanced stats to plummet in the playoffs. Since it's common to notice a decline in statistical impact, it's best to see how Westbrook's influence on the court contrasts with the 5 guards that were mentioned prior.
2015-16 Playoffs:
‣ Westbrook: +4.22 PIPM, .208 WS/48, +9.1 BPM
‣ Kyle Lowry: +2.96 PIPM, .077 WS/48, +2.5 BPM
‣ Curry: +0.95 PIPM, .152 WS/48, +7.0 BPM
‣ Chris Paul: +0.87 PIPM, .322 WS/48, +14.0 BPM
‣ John Wall: (N/A)
‣ Kyrie Irving: +2.58 PIPM, .210 WS/48, +6.0 BPM
With the advanced metrics given, we see Westbrook being the best playoff performer of the bunch. Now, I'm taking Chris Paul's WS/48 and BPM with a grain of salt, since it doesn't correlate to his playoff PIPM, while playing a measly 4 games, during the entire 2015-16 playoff campaign. Kyrie Irving's production skyrocketed, due to him no longer dealing with minute restrictions, and playing without the pain of a broken kneecap. But even then, Westbrook still provides better impact evaluations. Most of that is rooted in Kyrie Irving being a lackluster defender, due to a small frame and weak defensive positioning.
So, what can we learn from '16 Westbrook? Well, this version of Westbrook proves to be the most prolific version of Westbrook in the playoffs. The 2015-16 campaign also proves Westbrook to be an elite passer, and how his 'stat-padded' assists in 2017, shouldn’t negate the fact that Westbrook’s playmaking is top-notch, and should never be taken for granted. This season validates Westbrook to be a triple-double machine, that is capable of being one of the sidekicks of all-time, who was a major part of Oklahoma’s 2016 playoff run. So, when it’s all said and one, this should be hailed as one of Westbrook’s defining seasons.
Sources:
- Basketball Reference (for stats like WS/48 and BPM, which show player impact)
- Ben Taylor and Optimus Dime (for the statistic Box Creation, which measures creation)
- Jacob Goldstein (for creating PIPM, which is an all-in-one advanced metric)
